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Thursday, March 8, 2007

Quote of the Day: Pollyanna turns a little scary

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    “The rapid shift in January to frigid air in much of the country had a cooling affect on home shopping that went beyond normal seasonal factors...Weather disruptions have continued since.  We are seeing temporary near-term weather disruptions in much of the country, but there is an underlying pattern of stabilization in the housing market.  As a result of these weather disruptions, it may take a couple months for the picture to fully clarify, but a modest recovery is likely.  Housing remains a great long-term investment.”   -- David Lereah, chief economist, National Association of Realtors, in an NAR press release.

    Economists and meteorologists share a common trait:  They predict, then they explain why their predictions were wrong, then they predict again...and on and on.  Lereah has been predicting the imminent return of the housing market month after month after month.   To him, there is never anything inherently wrong with the housing market; not over-speculation, not too many realtors chasing too few buyers, not some agents' pandering to homeowners' lust to get the highest possible price for their homes.   No, it is the weather's fault, as if people who are looking for a home don't own warm coats. 
    Lereah is at his blindingly obvious best when he says, "Housing remains a great long-term investment"; to extend the weather metaphor, that is almost like saying the sun will come up tomorrow.  However, if a shill like Lereah, who always predicts happy days just around the corner, is now saying it may take "a couple of months" before we know about the market's status, then we should be afraid.  Very afraid.
Read 3770 times Last modified on Friday, 27 September 2013 11:29
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Larry Gavrich

This blog was conceived and is published by me, Larry Gavrich, a former corporate communications executive who founded HomeOnTheCourse, LLC, in 2005.  Our firm advises baby boomers and others seeking a lifestyle in which golf is a major component.  My wife Connie and I own a home in Connecticut (not on a golf course) and a condo at Pawleys Plantation in Pawleys Island, SC, on a Jack Nicklaus layout.  We began our search for our home on the course more than 15 years ago, and the challenges of the search inspired me to research golf communities and write objective reviews of them.